Model targeting Eagles, Patriots

Vegas oddsmakers are expecting a competitive upcoming slate, as the Week 5 NFL odds have all matchups with NFL spreads under 10 points. The Dolphins are 9.5-point home favorites over the Giants, while the Lions are 8.5-point favorites at home versus the winless Panthers in the latest NFL betting lines. Carolina is one of a handful of teams yet to cover the spread this season, which could be a trend to consider for your Week 5 NFL bets. Meanwhile, Detroit is tied with an NFL-high three wins against the spread this season.

The NFL betting trends for this matchup clearly favorite the Lions in a matchup of top overall picks Jared Goff and Bryce Young. Should your Week 5 NFL picks align with the NFL betting trends, or could this be the latest surprise result in a season that has already seen lots of them? All of the Week 5 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 5 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 168-118 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 22-10 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 5 NFL odds and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 5 NFL predictions
One of the model’s strongest Week 5 NFL picks is that the Eagles (-4.5) cover against the Rams. These teams are next to each other in defensive rankings, as Los Angeles ranks 15th in scoring defense, while Philadelphia ranks 16th. The difference between the two lies on the offensive end, where the Eagles are top-five in points per game, while the Rams are a middling 13th.

Behind Matthew Stafford’s arm, the Rams lead the NFL in pass attempts and rank second in passing yards. However, that high volume hasn’t lent itself to efficiency where it matters the most since just two teams have fewer passing touchdowns than L.A. That inefficient offense is paired with a defense that doesn’t generate extra possessions. The Rams have the second-fewest takeaways in the league with two, while the Eagles have forced eight turnovers in 2023. With the gaps in between the two on offense and in turnover differential, the model has Philadelphia covering in well over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 5 NFL predictions: The Patriots (-1.5) cover the spread at home versus the Saints. Mac Jones and Derek Carr have underperformed this year, but at least Jones doesn’t have more turnovers than touchdowns, unlike Carr. The former Raider hasn’t thrown more than one touchdown in each of his last five starts and is dealing with a shoulder injury that’s held him under 130 passing yards in each of his last two starts. He’s also been a sitting duck in the pocket and has been sacked the fifth-most times despite ranking 20th in dropbacks.

New England fields one of just three units that ranks in the top 10 against the run and pass. With Carr and the Saints’ passing offense already shooting itself in the foot, the Patriots can load up against New Orleans’ run game, which has its own struggles. The team ranks in the bottom 10 in both rushing yards and yards per carry, while New Orleans finished with just 70 yards on the ground in Alvin Kamara’s Week 4 return. Add in the fact that the Saints have not covered in a single game this season and New England (-1.5) is projected to cover well over 50% of the time. The model also says the Under (39) hits in well over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.